Talking Footy

look at the odds for this weekends round

I mean ... why would anyone bother with this lop sided ... half the teams are utter rubbish ... not an upset in sight .. comp

St Kilda 1.15 V Fremantle 6.51
Geelong 1.03 V Gold Coast 21.00 WTF
Carlton 1.16 V Melbourne 6.70
Ess 2.00 V Sydney 1.88....
Port 17.00 V Collingwood 1.04 geez louise
Brisbane 1.69 V Adelaide 2.25
Hawthorn 1.17 V North Melb 6.00
West Coast 1.10 V Richmond 8.00

the average favs V non favs is 1.28 V 8.68
holy snapping @ holes .......... wot a big weekend its gunna be
2 close games ...& 6 games not worth looking at they are so unmatched
it is the biggest .. meh .. comp there is
vickykicky ... on the nose ... it stinks

compare that to the NRL
sides evenly matched ... ... games not being a fore gone conclusion ... comp favourites getting run down regularly
a great little comp


Bulldogs 2.08V Cowboys 1.83
Tigers 2.45 V Dragons 1.61
Melb 1.25V Penrith 5.25
Sharks 1.43 V Titans 3.10
Brisb 1.48V Warriors 2.80
Newc 1.45 V Raiders 3.15
Manly 1.28 V Roosters 4.25
Souths 1.65 V Parramatta 2.40

our average .. fav V non fav
1.50V 3.19

the AFL is a dud comp... call it off now & play the finals
& in fact .. just a top 4
the rest are making up the numbers ..

This is officially a fucking crap thread. Since when did the fucking bookies have a say in match results? Well they did once in the fucking NRL!!

Onions wrote:

This is officially a ******* crap thread. Since when did the ******* bookies have a say in match results? Well they did once in the ******* NRL!!

Mr Turnip
the bookmakers & their odds are a reflection of form & relative ability of one team V another

from the odds posted for this week
there are a lot of AFL teams ... out of form with no relative ability
which is about right

So they're all into fucking match fixing now?

Onions wrote:

So they're all into ******* match fixing now?

tanking ?
yes .. that is what they're doing in the AFL
a form of match fixing

good pick up

That's not fucking match fixing, you stupid kid! Match fixing is what Canterbury fucking did!

Onions wrote:

This is officially a ******* crap thread. Since when did the ******* bookies have a say in match results? Well they did once in the ******* NRL!!

Agreed. Epic fail Raider.

I think we only need to look at the tipping percentages in this sites tipping competitions. Have a look at the NRL tipping comp and you will see that predicting the winner is harder with no one having a tipping percentage of 70% . Disregard those that have only tipped a handful of games. Then have a look at the AFL tipping competition with the leader having a tipping % of 76.2% (Even I have a tipping percentage of 71.7% in the AFL and I am coming 25th in the AFL tipping comp) and around 40 tippers over 70%.

Why would this be like this if it wasn't that so many of the games are so one sided that picking the winner is easy. I am not going to dig around for the stats but I was talking to an AFL fan on another site and they said there are many more blow outs in the AFL this year with more games with a margin of 100 or more.

That's what happens when you create teams when the talent is not there. Wait till next year when GWS enters your competition and the talent is spread even thinner.

Epic fail AFL

So the AFL is having one of it's more predictable seasons. So what? I'm sure it won't be long before the NRL has one as well. That's just the way of sport and this thread is trying to make something out of nothing. There have been upsets. Indeed many pundits believed that the Suns would not win a game and they have been proven wrong. Many more predicted the Suns would win the wooden spoon, and unless Port Adelaide turn things around they won't.

Truthsayer wrote:

So the AFL is having one of it's more predictable seasons. So what? I'm sure it won't be long before the NRL has one as well. That's just the way of sport and this thread is trying to make something out of nothing. There have been upsets. Indeed many pundits believed that the Suns would not win a game and they have been proven wrong. Many more predicted the Suns would win the wooden spoon, and unless Port Adelaide turn things around they won't.

Face the facts the AFL has become predictable and it's due to the talent having to be spread too thin with too many so so players in teams that can't compete with the big boys like Collingwood Geelong and Carlton etc.

It's not fact, Mr Mark. One predictable season does not make for a problem that needs to be addressed. The NRL is bound to suffer a similar problem at some point in the not too distant future. You can't deny that possibility. It's the nature of sport as I said before. Any sport.

Truthsayer wrote:

So the AFL is having one of it's more predictable seasons. So what? I'm sure it won't be long before the NRL has one as well. That's just the way of sport and this thread is trying to make something out of nothing. There have been upsets. Indeed many pundits believed that the Suns would not win a game and they have been proven wrong. Many more predicted the Suns would win the wooden spoon, and unless Port Adelaide turn things around they won't.

this journalist has used a stronger word then " predictable "he said its ... " farcial "
a staggering 46 times an AFL favourite has been under $1.15 in betting in 2011...
& 43 times this favourite has won
in the NRL ... its only 4 times .. & twice the underdog has got up

& he's dead right about it being a farce ... I recall while it hasn't been this bad in recent years , the AFL has been woefully predictable for about the last 5 years
the AFL is a dud comp , there is just NO competition outside the top 4... the fans of about 12 to 13 of the teams are struggling to stay awake ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
AFL= FARCE

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/ ... 6108577415
LIKE the battles waged throughout history over religion, there will never be an end to the argument about which is the premier sport - Aussie rules or rugby league.

Traditionally it depends on the side of the border you were born, although these barriers are slowly being broken down as a result of expansion.

Outright supremacy will never be won but regardless of whether you are a Steeden or a Sherrin fan, there is no hiding the fact that the NRL is king when it comes to the competitive nature and closeness of the competition for punters.

One only has to look at the prices for this weekend's round of AFL games to realise how lop-sided the comp has become. It's teetering on farcical.

Six of the eight games are dominated by favourites priced at the super-skinny quote of $1.11 or shorter.

The inverse equation of that price means there is roughly a 92 per cent chance that these teams will win.


So just circle the good things in the tipping competition, don't even bother watching, and the winners will flow.

As the business end of the season approaches, the gap between the elite sides and those who barely look like they know their teammates' names is frightening.

The ridiculously short favourites just win, there is very little chance of an even contest, and don't dare anyone mention the word "upset".

A review of the betting statistics for the AFL season shows there have been 40 teams, not including this weekend, priced at $1.15 or shorter.

Only three of those games have produced an upset, or 7.5 per cent; those being the Gold Coast ($8) upsetting Port Adelaide in round five, the Gold Coast ($7) beating Brisbane in round seven and Essendon ($7.50) downing Geelong in round 15.

Unless you have an unlimited bank balance and are willing to wager a few zeroes, there is no point having a bet in the majority of head-to-head matches.

The same study of betting on NRL depicts a much brighter story.

There have only been four teams priced at $1.15 or shorter in 21 rounds - compared to only 19 rounds of AFL - and two of the shorties have been rolled in a thrilling upset.

One of which was St George Illawarra last Sunday, who started as the shortest-priced favourites of the season at $1.14 against South Sydney. They skipped to a 20-0 lead and got even shorter in the market but still got lost, providing a tremendous spectacle.

On the same day, Collingwood played Essendon and despite being down by as much as 30 points, they were never in danger.

This was reflected in the live betting, with bookmakers and punters on betting exchanges keeping the Pies super-short in the market, knowing that over time they would claw their way back into the match.

They eventually won by a staggering 74 points.

To reflect how poor betting on the AFL has become, one punter has had $12,000 on a double including reigning premiers Collingwood to beat Port Adelaide and Geelong to beat the Gold Coast this weekend.

Both sides are at the rock-bottom price of $1.01. If both win he collects a mere $240.

The beauty of sport is competition and the reality that no one knows the script.

Unfortunately for the AFL, it seems everyone has already seen the play.

MarkZZZ wrote:

I think we only need to look at the tipping percentages in this sites tipping competitions. Have a look at the NRL tipping comp and you will see that predicting the winner is harder with no one having a tipping percentage of 70% . Disregard those that have only tipped a handful of games. Then have a look at the AFL tipping competition with the leader having a tipping % of 76.2% (Even I have a tipping percentage of 71.7% in the AFL and I am coming 25th in the AFL tipping comp) and around 40 tippers over 70%.

Why would this be like this if it wasn't that so many of the games are so one sided that picking the winner is easy. I am not going to dig around for the stats but I was talking to an AFL fan on another site and they said there are many more blow outs in the AFL this year with more games with a margin of 100 or more.

That's what happens when you create teams when the talent is not there. Wait till next year when GWS enters your competition and the talent is spread even thinner.

Epic fail AFL

Yes Mark ..

this farcial situation is going to get worse in 2012 ... even if GWS manage to secure a decent roster ( unlikely )
this talent has to come from the present existing uncompetitive teams making them even less competitive
no wonder crowds are falling ... & TV ratings aswell .. who'd want to watch this cr@p

what a mess the AFL has got itself into
serves em right

Raider and Mark =D>

Well done. This is superb research conducted by the pair of you. And aren't the results just glaring! As an AFL fan who has his eyes open I'm pretty worried about what this all says for the code. The NRL looks to be the better product by a long way at the moment and if the AFL doesnt become aware of its own issues it will continue to fall....

People are really loving the NRL lately, I mean look at the Eels Storm matchup on monday night. 2nd last vs first and it was a fantastic match which went down to the wire. I was at a pub on the monday and it was packed with blokes like me who'd left their houses on a monday eve just to catch a top of the table vs bottom of the table game.

You lot are so fucking deluded! Didn't you read what Truthsayer fucking said. It's the nature of ALL sport that there's the odd fucking season that's predictable!! And yet you fuck wits show all your stupid bias thinking it's the end of the fucking world! Who's still winning the crowd fight on fucking averages? THE AFL!!! Who's still fucking winning the most important TV battle (the capital cities). THE AFL!!!

Pretty fucking good for a "crap" comp, hey?

The Suns will be a finals side by 2013. Look how far the fucking Eagles jumped from last year! And this weekend? I'm putting $5 on Fremantle!!