Truthsayer wrote:So the AFL is having one of it's more predictable seasons. So what? I'm sure it won't be long before the NRL has one as well. That's just the way of sport and this thread is trying to make something out of nothing. There have been upsets. Indeed many pundits believed that the Suns would not win a game and they have been proven wrong. Many more predicted the Suns would win the wooden spoon, and unless Port Adelaide turn things around they won't.
this journalist has used a stronger word then
" predictable "he said its ...
" farcial " 
a staggering 46 times an AFL favourite has been under $1.15 in betting in 2011...
& 43 times this favourite has won
in the NRL ... its only 4 times .. & twice the underdog has got up
& he's dead right about it being a farce ... I recall while it hasn't been this bad in recent years , the AFL has been woefully predictable for about the last 5 years
the AFL is a dud comp , there is just NO competition outside the top 4... the fans of about 12 to 13 of the teams are struggling to stay awake ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
AFL= FARCE
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/ ... 6108577415
LIKE the battles waged throughout history over religion, there will never be an end to the argument about which is the premier sport - Aussie rules or rugby league.
Traditionally it depends on the side of the border you were born, although these barriers are slowly being broken down as a result of expansion.
Outright supremacy will never be won but regardless of whether you are a Steeden or a Sherrin fan, there is no hiding the fact that the NRL is king when it comes to the competitive nature and closeness of the competition for punters.
One only has to look at the prices for this weekend's round of AFL games to realise how lop-sided the comp has become. It's teetering on farcical.
Six of the eight games are dominated by favourites priced at the super-skinny quote of $1.11 or shorter.
The inverse equation of that price means there is roughly a 92 per cent chance that these teams will win.
So just circle the good things in the tipping competition, don't even bother watching, and the winners will flow.
As the business end of the season approaches, the gap between the elite sides and those who barely look like they know their teammates' names is frightening.
The ridiculously short favourites just win, there is very little chance of an even contest, and don't dare anyone mention the word "upset".
A review of the betting statistics for the AFL season shows there have been 40 teams, not including this weekend, priced at $1.15 or shorter.
Only three of those games have produced an upset, or 7.5 per cent; those being the Gold Coast ($8) upsetting Port Adelaide in round five, the Gold Coast ($7) beating Brisbane in round seven and Essendon ($7.50) downing Geelong in round 15.
Unless you have an unlimited bank balance and are willing to wager a few zeroes, there is no point having a bet in the majority of head-to-head matches.
The same study of betting on NRL depicts a much brighter story.
There have only been four teams priced at $1.15 or shorter in 21 rounds - compared to only 19 rounds of AFL - and two of the shorties have been rolled in a thrilling upset.
One of which was St George Illawarra last Sunday, who started as the shortest-priced favourites of the season at $1.14 against South Sydney. They skipped to a 20-0 lead and got even shorter in the market but still got lost, providing a tremendous spectacle.
On the same day, Collingwood played Essendon and despite being down by as much as 30 points, they were never in danger.
This was reflected in the live betting, with bookmakers and punters on betting exchanges keeping the Pies super-short in the market, knowing that over time they would claw their way back into the match.
They eventually won by a staggering 74 points.
To reflect how poor betting on the AFL has become, one punter has had $12,000 on a double including reigning premiers Collingwood to beat Port Adelaide and Geelong to beat the Gold Coast this weekend.
Both sides are at the rock-bottom price of $1.01. If both win he collects a mere $240.
The beauty of sport is competition and the reality that no one knows the script.
Unfortunately for the AFL, it seems everyone has already seen the play.
