Foxtel or Channel 7 & 10?

[Beaussie]

Persoanlly I don't want Foxtel involved at all. I reckon coverage of all games live on Channel 7 and 10 is the best way to further develop the game, particularly in the developing states. Why should footy fans have to pay to watch footy?

Friday night footy live in Sydney and Brisbane on Channel 7. Will it be a reality? Gee I hope so.

[Grim Reaper]

For me I would much prefer the AFL was shown on Jihad Television.....

[Willis 21]

Sell your 7 and 10 shares now!!!

7 and 10 were relying on Foxtel kicking in $60 mil a year for the overpriced rights.. thats a big hole to replace in their budgets...

[Beaussie]

The AFL would still be happy you'd think after getting a record $780 million tv deal and all 8 games expected to be broadcast nationally live. How much did the NRL tv rights go for again and more importantly what will the national coverage on Channel 9 be like Wills?

[Willis 21]

I hope they show the AFL live in Sydney and Brisbane on Friday nights up against the double header NRL games....

Absolute slaughter....

[Beaussie]

I hope they show the AFL live in Sydney and Brisbane on Friday nights up against the double header NRL games....

So do I. No need to wait up till midnight or get Foxtel anymore. Will be fantastic for the further development of the game in NSW and QLD too. The best ever free to air coverage in the history of the game. How that can be a bad thing, I just don't understand.

[Willis 21]

Commercial TV stations are not benevolent societies Bea, their management have to answer to shareholders who might be wondering why that in 2 of their 3 biggest markets they are forced to give away advertising for nothing during prime time on Friday nights...

On another matter, I've heard that the NRL are going to ensure that one of the three QLD teams will be involved each Friday night to guarantee maximum QLD ratings....

If the QLD team is playing away in Sydney, then this will be the live match going into QLD...

And we thought that AFL ratings were bad in Brisbane in 2006!!!

[Beaussie]

The latest, in particular the bolded parts below would suggest you've got no idea what's at stake Willis.

[quote]Don't hold your breath over footy
Matthew Ricketson
November 9, 2006

http://www.realfooty.theage.com.au/real ... 57006.html

FOXTEL, the nation's biggest pay TV provider, and the Seven and Ten networks are deep into a game to see who can hold their breath underwater the longest.

Underwater breath-holding is not an Olympic event, but this is a serious play over sports broadcasting rights that the three networks are competing for. A pay TV analyst has estimated that between $80 and $100 million dollars are at stake.

That sounds like a lot of money, but maybe not in the context of the billions the networks deal in.

The situation is this: early this year, networks Seven and Ten agreed to pay $780 million for the right to broadcast Australian Football League games for the next five seasons, from 2007 to 2011.

They then began negotiating with Foxtel, which under its arrangement with the previous rights holder, Channel Nine, had broadcast three of the eight weekly AFL games live on its dedicated football channel, Fox Footy.

Negotiations over how many games Foxtel might broadcast in 2007-2011, and at what cost, broke down and before the end of the 2006 season, Foxtel announced the closure of Fox Footy.

Under the terms of the 2007-2011 rights deal, the two free to air TV networks are obliged to broadcast all eight AFL games live or near live.

According to the recently released AFL fixture, this means that unless Seven and Ten come to an agreement with Foxtel, they will broadcast all eight games themselves and in so doing, will end up occasionally competing against each other for audiences.

Whichever of the two networks broadcasts the Friday night AFL game will be soundly beaten in the Sydney and Brisbane markets when it competes against the Nine Network's popular live National Rugby League coverage.

One pay TV analyst has estimated Seven and Ten's publicly stated acceptance that they will broadcast all eight games will cost the two networks between $80 and $100 million next year.

This figure comes from four components: lost revenue from Foxtel to broadcast four games in 2007 ($45 million); production costs to cover the games previously broadcast live by Foxtel ($6-8 million); foregone spot advertising revenue, especially in the Sydney and Brisbane markets (up to $25 million); and the likely loss of advertising premiums as the two networks' share of total audience drops by around 0.6 per cent ($20 million).

I bounced these figures off two media industry analysts, Harold Mitchell of Mitchell & Partners, and Steve Allen of Fusion Strategy. Mitchell thought the figures were high but not outlandish. Allen, on the other hand, believes they are unduly pessimistic.

He said: "Those figures represent no upside at all for Seven and Ten if they broadcast all eight games themselves, only downside. Whoever put those figures together is on drugs".

Allen acknowledged whichever network competes against rugby league in Sydney and Brisbane on Friday night will struggle, but points to past ratings figures showing Nine has dominated Friday night ratings.

AFL remains the most popular and most sought after sport nationwide for broadcasters â€â€

[Willis 21]

Yes.. this part doesn't support what I am saying at all ...

Whichever of the two networks broadcasts the Friday night AFL game will be soundly beaten in the Sydney and Brisbane markets when it competes against the Nine Network's popular live National Rugby League coverage.

One pay TV analyst has estimated Seven and Ten's publicly stated acceptance that they will broadcast all eight games will cost the two networks between $80 and $100 million next year.

This figure comes from four components: lost revenue from Foxtel to broadcast four games in 2007 ($45 million); production costs to cover the games previously broadcast live by Foxtel ($6-8 million); foregone spot advertising revenue, especially in the Sydney and Brisbane markets (up to $25 million); and the likely loss of advertising premiums as the two networks' share of total audience drops by around 0.6 per cent ($20 million).

In other news did you see the Storm's season opener will be shown live by Channel 9 into Melbourne next year... :P

[Beaussie]

Yes.. this part doesn't support what I am saying at all ...

Please read the bolded text again Willis:

"Those figures represent no upside at all for Seven and Ten if they broadcast all eight games themselves, only downside. Whoever put those figures together is on drugs".

...AFL remains the most popular and most sought after sport nationwide for broadcasters â€â€

[Beaussie]

In other news did you see the Storm's season opener will be shown live by Channel 9 into Melbourne next year... :P

Is that Friday night live up against Friday night AFL? Absolute thrashing in the ratings for Channel 9.

[Willis 21]

Please read the bolded text again Willis:

So there are two opinions quoted in the article, and you like the one that supports your side of the argument....

Its not proof of anything, and at the moment it means nothing...

[Willis 21]

Is that Friday night live up against Friday night AFL? Absolute thrashing in the ratings for Channel 9.

I think the game will be played the week before the AFL season starts, b ut regardless, 7 & 10 will be copping a hiding in Sydney and Brisbane when/if the AFL will be going against the NRL double header on Friday nights, so what's good for the goose is good for the gander...

[Beaussie]

Looks like Channel 7 & 10 in particular, are more than willing to go it alone without Foxtel.

Networks in race to lure AFL sponsors
Paul McIntyre Marketing Editor
November 9, 2006
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/net ... 55477.html

The Seven and Ten networks have started their market jostling to pull in up to $120 million in AFL-broadcast advertising revenues next year despite no certainty about whether the schedule will involve pay TV.

Without a pay TV partner, the AFL's two new broadcast partners will have to convince the ad market to hand over at least $40 million more to free-to-air TV.

Seven is expected to launch its packages to media buyers next week - some will have bundled AFL and V8 Supercars coverage - and there were suggestions this week that Seven and Ten may jointly broadcast the AFL Grand Final to sidestep "category exclusivity" issues for advertisers.

AFL revenues for Nine and Ten are now worth $85 million-$90 million and if Seven and Ten fail to see an increase in the $45 million offer put forward by Foxtel for four matches each week, they will go it alone.

"At the moment the offers at Foxtel are irrelevant to what Seven and Ten will write [in advertising] from any increase in broadcast hours," said a Seven executive.

Network Ten has already tried for a jump on Seven, having started negotiations two weeks ago with its 2006 top-tier AFL sponsors who paid $2 million to $3 million each for their deals this year - they include Toyota, Harvey Norman, Bunnings, Red Rooster, Diageo, CUB, Motorola, Primus and McDonald's.

"We've gone back to existing sponsors to say here's a way we can carve it up whatever happens," said Ten sales boss Shaun James, who said having no pay TV partner was viewed as "a positive" by Ten.

"If you have a greater number of games, it opens up a number of [advertiser] categories … We've been giving a number of briefings to key [buying] consortiums on our AFL strategy and we certainly haven't had any pushback on it."

Mr James said he expected to sign off with a number of AFL sponsors by Christmas.

"At the end of the day, if we double our broadcasting time, it's all upside for the advertisers. "

If a pay TV deal failed to materialise, and at least one network is now saying it's their preferred scenario, Seven and Ten would have to extract a minimum $40 million in additional support from advertisers.

Key media buyers said additional AFL revenue gains on free-to-air would be difficult but possible.

"Our view is existing sponsors are at capacity now in terms of pricing and absolute volumes they commit to the code," said Mediacom's investment director James Parkinson.

"Some existing sponsors may be open to reducing the exclusivity requirements, allowing the networks additional selling opportunities. The networks have the ability to bring more money in while still satisfying the existing requirements from sponsors. It will just be about having frank and open discussions."

[Willis 21]

Surprisingly Bea, you haven't got around to posting this yet..

This article supports a lot of what I have been saying about AFL coverage in the northern states being an absolute disaster when competing against Channel 9 NRL coverage...

Channel 31...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st ... 82,00.html

Sell-out claim on AFL TV deal
Mark Day
November 16, 2006
AUSTRALIAN football rights holders Channel 7 and Channel 10 are looking to community television stations in Sydney and Brisbane to meet their obligation to broadcast eight live AFL games a week and avoid a financial black hole on Friday and Sunday nights.
The surprise move was confirmed yesterday by the acting chief executive of Sydney's TVS Channel 31, Laurie Patton. He told Media: "There have been some discussions and we would be delighted to provide air time for this to occur. We see it as a very strong delivery of our community obligations under our licence conditions."

It is understood the AFL consortium of Seven and Ten has drawn up contingency plans to purchase air time on TVS and the Brisbane community station Briz31 if no agreement can be reached with pay-TV provider Foxtel.

Negotiations between the groups have been drawn out and acrimonious, with the parties reportedly $15 million apart.

Under the terms of Seven and Ten's $780 million five-year agreement with the AFL, the free-to-air broadcasters have the right to on-sell up to four games a week to pay TV. If no agreement is reached, they will be bound to broadcast all eight games a week on free-to-air. This includes one game on Friday night and a new twilight game on Sunday evening which must, under the contract, be broadcast live nationally.

This will suit Seven and Ten in the AFL southern states but is a recipe for financial disaster in NSW, ACT and Queensland. The ratings for live AFL head to head against an NRL double-header on Nine on Friday night, and Sunday league games leading into Nine's 6pm news, would be minuscule.
Seven refuses to detail its plans but has made it known that it has no intention of crippling its prime-time programming in Sydney and Brisbane, and has developed contingency plans with which it is "quite comfortable".
But the AFL is reported to be deeply unhappy with the plan to use the community channels. No AFL official would comment yesterday, but it is understood the AFL is seething over what it sees as a sell-out by Seven and Ten.

"There is no way that this is in the spirit of the agreement," a source said. "The whole aim is to put football before the biggest possible audience. That's what Seven promised. This trashes that promise."

Many households in Sydney are unable to pick up UHF channel 31 and the channel operator, Television Sydney, is under great financial pressure. TVS has its studios on the campus of the University of Western Sydney and broadcasts from the ABC's Gore Hill tower.

But its UHF signal is weak and regarded as inferior by those who can pick it up.

Station sources admitted there were black spots, including the northern beaches, but the signal was available in most elevated areas of Sydney, from Wollongong to the central coast.

Brisbane's Channel 31 signal is more widely received but neither community channel extends to country areas, which will disappoint the AFL because it is keen to promote its code throughout the nation.

The financial future of TVS is under a cloud. Last month it was reported it would soon run out of cash unless more funds were made available by the University of Western Sydney. It has already committed $1.5 million and guaranteed a $2 million bank loan.

The station is reportedly losing $73,000 a month. As a community station it is entitled to sell up to eight hours a day of air time to outside profit-making companies and it can carry seven minutes an hour of sponsorship advertising.

This means the consortium could buy the air time it needs on Friday nights and Sunday evenings, while keeping the revenue from selling up to 21 minutes of advertising during a three-hour game. A deal with the Seven-Ten consortium might provide financial salvation for the station, as well as being a way to protect as much revenue as possible. But it would be a far costlier exercise than doing a deal with Foxtel, which has offered $45 million for the rights to broadcast four live games a week, plus replays of all other games. Seven and Ten have demanded $60 million.

If the Seven-Ten consortium pays TVS and Briz 31 for air time to show the Friday night and Sunday evening games, it will increase the cost impact of the rights purchase.

The consortium will have to pick up the entire cost of production for eight matches a week, as well as forgo advertising and revenue from Foxtel. Market analysts estimate the negative impact of a go-it-alone decision at $80 million a year.

Seven would not comment yesterday

I quite like these parts...

but is a recipe for financial disaster in NSW, ACT and Queensland. The ratings for live AFL head to head against an NRL double-header on Nine on Friday night, and Sunday league games leading into Nine's 6pm news, would be minuscule.

Minuscule....

Seven refuses to detail its plans but has made it known that it has no intention of crippling its prime-time programming in Sydney and Brisbane, and has developed contingency plans with which it is "quite comfortable

"crippling its prime time programming"...

You get Channel 31 Bea??