Options for a lopsided comp

[Xman]

It doesn't take much for an upset to happen in the NRL, because of low scores. I call that a bad thing - not a good thing.

Needed to be said.

So Xman excuse is they are exempt because they suck and your excuse is because of low scores...... bahahhaha

Surly Pies your not going to come up with lame excuses like this....

So now that these 2 muppets have admitted defeat (IE bringing up crowds again ) i see no reason to keep this thread open, Thread closed....NRL the easy winner. =D>

So you're saying I said they suck because they suck?

No, they suck because they are brand new teams full of teenagers! But kids mature and become decent players. So will the clubs. Everyone knows and understands they are uncompetitive and why. But you've got to start somewhere. The AFL will reap the benefits of these few years in the long run. Meanwhile the nRL just talk about expansion.

As for your comment about crowds, that's the point. The AFL draw bigger crowds because the game is more interesting, and higher scoring is part of that.

[justanotherleaguefan]

Parramatta (16th) beat Melbourne (2nd) the benchmark team last night

Would that happen in the AFL?

[Xman]

Parramatta (16th) beat Melbourne (2nd) the benchmark team last night

Would that happen in the AFL?

http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/Ladder/2012_Round_9

In rnd 10 Melbourne (18th) beat Essendon (2nd on percentage), so yes.

The storm are hardly the benchmark after a number of losses in a row. Who knows, they may actually have a modest season soon.

[TLPG]

Eel, the real reason why you want this thread closed is because you don't have an answer to what either Xman or myself said! So who's winning this again?

Either answer the point, or admit defeat.

Needed to be said.

[piesman2011]

All i can draw from this thread so far is the following:

This year the AFL is a closer competition despite introducing two brand new sides filled with kids. As shown by my resent stats. I have yet to see any evidence statistically to prove otherwise. There has only been opinion.

Historically the AFL produces more winners due to the draft system. This gives more chances to poorer clubs to win GFs. The zones found in the NRL are flawed because the same teams keep winning. The Broncos are rarely weak and were able to pass on players such as Slatter, Smith and Cronk who ended up at different clubs despite being desperate to play for the Broncos. If I was a follower of a historically weak club such as Parramatta or Souths who have struggled since the mid 80's I would be asking for a new system to be put into place to give my club a shot at a title every 10 years.

[Xman]

As I see it blow out scores occur in both codes. The fact ARs is higher scoring means the scorelines look more one sided but in reality piesman has shown that the NRL is actually more uneven.

But the real measure of whether a comp is predictable and lopsided is the public interest, and we all know the AFL dominate every measurable indicator by a considerable margin.

[eelofwest]

All i can draw from this thread so far is the following:

This year the AFL is a closer competition despite introducing two brand new sides filled with kids. As shown by my resent stats. I have yet to see any evidence statistically to prove otherwise. There has only been opinion.

Historically the AFL produces more winners due to the draft system. This gives more chances to poorer clubs to win GFs. The zones found in the NRL are flawed because the same teams keep winning. The Broncos are rarely weak and were able to pass on players such as Slatter, Smith and Cronk who ended up at different clubs despite being desperate to play for the Broncos. If I was a follower of a historically weak club such as Parramatta or Souths who have struggled since the mid 80's I would be asking for a new system to be put into place to give my club a shot at a title every 10 years.

Its okay Pies keep your head in the sand.....

Btw Raiders 13th place as of last round beat the Sharks 4th place 36-4......... the evidence keeps mounting boys....

Update

AFL Blowouts 2012

Round 1
GWS 37 - 100 SYD, GCS 68 - 137 ADE
Round 2
BRI 63 - 154 CAR, WCE 166 - 58 MEL, NM 183 - 54 GWS, STK 139 - 47 GCS
Round 3
CAR 122 - 62 COL, RIC 133 - 74 MEL ,WBD 40 - 103 STK, GWS 69 - 150 WCE, HAW 140 - 84 ADE
Round 4
BRI 111 - 46 GCS , GWS 62 - 104 WBD
Round 6
ESS 129 - 62 BRI CAR 110 - 43 GWS
Round 7
MEL 49 - 115 HAW, ADE 122 - 72 GEE, BRI 58 - 116 COL, ESS 113 - 52 WCE,
Round 8
HAW 119 - 63 FRE, SYD 138 - 37 MEL, WBD 72 - 34 GCS, CAR 55 - 124 ADE,
BRI 132 - 40 GWS
Round 9
RIC 137 - 75 HAW, GWS 53 - 119 ESS, CAR 107 - 49 MEL,
Round 10
GEE 126 - 61 GWS, HAW 174 - 59 NM, SYD 132 - 40 WBD, COL 149 - 52 GCS
Round 11 Byes for NM, Brisbane, GWS, WCE, WBD
GCS 49 - 144 STK
Round 12 Byes for Collingwood, Sydney, Essendon, Melbourne Demons, Dockers.
HAW 135 - 70 BRI,
Round 13 Byes for Richmond, Hawthorn, Port Ade, St Kilda, Gold Coast Suns, Carlton.
WBD 56 - 114 BRI, MEL 135 - 57 GWS
Round 14
WCE 166 - 40 GCS, SYD 132 - 38 GWS, ESS 140 - 56 WBD, BRI 122 - 61 MEL
Round 15
SYD 110 - 63 BRI, STK 133 - 62 ESS, POR 58 - 116 ADE, HAW 193 - 31 GWS
Round 16
GWS 59 - 178 ADE, WBD 44 - 116 HAW
Round 17
GEE 134 - 67 ESS, FRE 132 - 37 GWS


1. GWS 14 Floggings
2. GCS 8 Floggings
3. Mel 6 Floggings
4. WBD 5 Floggings

15 Bulldogs 16 5 0 11 75.20 20
16 Melbourne 16 2 0 14 64.24 8
17 Gold Coast 16 1 0 15 58.61 4
18 Greater Western Sydney 16 1 0 15 43.01 4

You guys notice a pattern here.....

[Xman]

All i can draw from this thread so far is the following:

This year the AFL is a closer competition despite introducing two brand new sides filled with kids. As shown by my resent stats. I have yet to see any evidence statistically to prove otherwise. There has only been opinion.

Historically the AFL produces more winners due to the draft system. This gives more chances to poorer clubs to win GFs. The zones found in the NRL are flawed because the same teams keep winning. The Broncos are rarely weak and were able to pass on players such as Slatter, Smith and Cronk who ended up at different clubs despite being desperate to play for the Broncos. If I was a follower of a historically weak club such as Parramatta or Souths who have struggled since the mid 80's I would be asking for a new system to be put into place to give my club a shot at a title every 10 years.

Its okay Pies keep your head in the sand.....

Btw Raiders 13th place as of last round beat the Sharks 4th place 36-4......... the evidence keeps mounting boys....

The only evidence mounting is you keep avoiding evidence provided by pies.

[piesman2011]

All i can draw from this thread so far is the following:

This year the AFL is a closer competition despite introducing two brand new sides filled with kids. As shown by my resent stats. I have yet to see any evidence statistically to prove otherwise. There has only been opinion.

Historically the AFL produces more winners due to the draft system. This gives more chances to poorer clubs to win GFs. The zones found in the NRL are flawed because the same teams keep winning. The Broncos are rarely weak and were able to pass on players such as Slatter, Smith and Cronk who ended up at different clubs despite being desperate to play for the Broncos. If I was a follower of a historically weak club such as Parramatta or Souths who have struggled since the mid 80's I would be asking for a new system to be put into place to give my club a shot at a title every 10 years.

Its okay Pies keep your head in the sand.....

Btw Raiders 13th place as of last round beat the Sharks 4th place 36-4......... the evidence keeps mounting boys....

Your picking out individual scorelines from individual games. This is 1 game from what will be over 200 in a season. You are cluching at straws mate. Show me some results that show the trend for the season.

[eelofwest]

This is what the NRL ladder looks like if it were 4 points for a win as in the AFL.

NRL

Round 20

1 Bulldogs 13 5 0 2 156 60
2 Storm 12 6 0 2 155 56
3 Rabbitohs 12 6 0 2 77 56
4 Broncos 11 7 0 2 82 52
5 Sharks 10 7 1 2 -11 50
6 Cowboys 10 7 0 2 83 48
7 Sea Eagles 10 8 0 2 33 48
8 Tigers 9 8 0 2 4 44
9 Warriors 8 10 0 2 25 40
10 Titans 8 10 0 2 -22 40
11 Knights 8 10 0 2 -34 40
12 Raiders 8 10 0 2 -39 40
13 Dragons 8 10 0 2 -58 40
14 Roosters 6 11 1 2 -134 34
15 Panthers 5 13 0 2 -126 28
16 Eels 4 14 0 2 -191 24

AFL

Round 17 another possible 12 points to add to those top sides...

1 Sydney 16 13 0 3 147.38 52
2 Adelaide 16 13 0 3 133.79 52
3 Hawthorn 16 12 0 4 156.60 48
4 Collingwood 16 12 0 4 115.85 48
5 West Coast 16 11 0 5 124.83 44
6 Essendon 16 11 0 5 122.02 44
7 Geelong 16 10 0 6 113.89 40
8 North Melbourne 16 9 0 7 107.73 36
9 St Kilda 16 8 0 8 117.23 32
10 Carlton 16 8 0 8 104.79 32
11 Fremantle 15 8 0 7 97.60 32
12 Richmond 16 7 0 9 106.24 28
13 Brisbane 16 7 0 9 93.44 28
14 Port Adelaide 16 5 0 11 82.54 20
15 Bulldogs 16 5 0 11 75.20 20
16 Melbourne 16 2 0 14 64.24 8
17 Gold Coast 16 1 0 15 58.61 4
18 Greater Western Sydney 15 1 0 14 43.01 4


Now open your eyes and make a comparison.

All this and the NRL has more upsets week in week out. =D>

[Xman]

This is what the NRL ladder looks like if it were 4 points for a win as in the AFL.

NRL

Round 20

1 Bulldogs 13 5 0 2 156 60
2 Storm 12 6 0 2 155 56
3 Rabbitohs 12 6 0 2 77 56
4 Broncos 11 7 0 2 82 52
5 Sharks 10 7 1 2 -11 50
6 Cowboys 10 7 0 2 83 48
7 Sea Eagles 10 8 0 2 33 48
8 Tigers 9 8 0 2 4 44
9 Warriors 8 10 0 2 25 40
10 Titans 8 10 0 2 -22 40
11 Knights 8 10 0 2 -34 40
12 Raiders 8 10 0 2 -39 40
13 Dragons 8 10 0 2 -58 40
14 Roosters 6 11 1 2 -134 34
15 Panthers 5 13 0 2 -126 28
16 Eels 4 14 0 2 -191 24

AFL

Round 17 another possible 12 points to add to those top sides...

1 Sydney 16 13 0 3 147.38 52
2 Adelaide 16 13 0 3 133.79 52
3 Hawthorn 16 12 0 4 156.60 48
4 Collingwood 16 12 0 4 115.85 48
5 West Coast 16 11 0 5 124.83 44
6 Essendon 16 11 0 5 122.02 44
7 Geelong 16 10 0 6 113.89 40
8 North Melbourne 16 9 0 7 107.73 36
9 St Kilda 16 8 0 8 117.23 32
10 Carlton 16 8 0 8 104.79 32
11 Fremantle 15 8 0 7 97.60 32
12 Richmond 16 7 0 9 106.24 28
13 Brisbane 16 7 0 9 93.44 28
14 Port Adelaide 16 5 0 11 82.54 20
15 Bulldogs 16 5 0 11 75.20 20
16 Melbourne 16 2 0 14 64.24 8
17 Gold Coast 16 1 0 15 58.61 4
18 Greater Western Sydney 15 1 0 14 43.01 4


Now open your eyes and make a comparison.

All this and the NRL has more upsets week in week out. =D>

The percentage indicates how close the games are you dope! this still favors the AFL

[piesman2011]

This is what the NRL ladder looks like if it were 4 points for a win as in the AFL.

NRL

Round 20

1 Bulldogs 13 5 0 2 156 60
2 Storm 12 6 0 2 155 56
3 Rabbitohs 12 6 0 2 77 56
4 Broncos 11 7 0 2 82 52
5 Sharks 10 7 1 2 -11 50
6 Cowboys 10 7 0 2 83 48
7 Sea Eagles 10 8 0 2 33 48
8 Tigers 9 8 0 2 4 44
9 Warriors 8 10 0 2 25 40
10 Titans 8 10 0 2 -22 40
11 Knights 8 10 0 2 -34 40
12 Raiders 8 10 0 2 -39 40
13 Dragons 8 10 0 2 -58 40
14 Roosters 6 11 1 2 -134 34
15 Panthers 5 13 0 2 -126 28
16 Eels 4 14 0 2 -191 24

AFL

Round 17 another possible 12 points to add to those top sides...

1 Sydney 16 13 0 3 147.38 52
2 Adelaide 16 13 0 3 133.79 52
3 Hawthorn 16 12 0 4 156.60 48
4 Collingwood 16 12 0 4 115.85 48
5 West Coast 16 11 0 5 124.83 44
6 Essendon 16 11 0 5 122.02 44
7 Geelong 16 10 0 6 113.89 40
8 North Melbourne 16 9 0 7 107.73 36
9 St Kilda 16 8 0 8 117.23 32
10 Carlton 16 8 0 8 104.79 32
11 Fremantle 15 8 0 7 97.60 32
12 Richmond 16 7 0 9 106.24 28
13 Brisbane 16 7 0 9 93.44 28
14 Port Adelaide 16 5 0 11 82.54 20
15 Bulldogs 16 5 0 11 75.20 20
16 Melbourne 16 2 0 14 64.24 8
17 Gold Coast 16 1 0 15 58.61 4
18 Greater Western Sydney 15 1 0 14 43.01 4


Now open your eyes and make a comparison.

All this and the NRL has more upsets week in week out. =D>

That is much better. However that is just comparing wins. You can be competative most weeks and be unluck and not pick up any wins. In my opinion I still believe that ponits for divided by points against X100 (percentage) is a more accurate way to show how close the competition is. Again that is just my opinion and your viewpoint is perfectly valid.

[TLPG]

Actually, Pies, it's not for the reasons Xman stated. Your view point and his are the ONLY valid opinion because it's correct in practice. Eel's insistence of going with win-loss ratios is doomed to fail because it relies on a corresponding margin each game. And that is a fail from the get go due to it not taking into account close games and thumpings. In that respect, the Suns and the Giants are standing up well against the also rans of the NRL.

[King-Eliagh]

Thw blind faith some of these AFL supporters, and expert commentators on tv for that matter, seem to have in this "bunch of teenagers" becoming the goods in 3 years time is quite funny. I was reading an article on the st kilda team some months ago and i cant remember the exact percentage but its around 25% or less of all players who make the AFL go on to have careers spanning more than 5 years. 25%! So on that we've got 1/4 of the GWS side who will continue on in the game and even less than that will be above average players. GWS are in a really tough position and who put them there? The blindingly stupid headhonchos down at AFL HQ. A shameful act and in fact given the beltings these poor suckers cop week in week out, being a part of this team/experiment could be career ruining for some of them. They have barely any leaders to look up to and learn from...

Now on another matter regarding the lopsidedness of the AFL comp. I'd like for someone to find us the tv averages for GWS, Melbourne, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and the GC. I think it'd be quite interesting, especially if we get the average viewers for those teams over the last 8 weeks, after the honeymoon phase of the season is over. I watched gws yest and it was terribly boring viewing...just not a contest from the first ballup. I wouldnt be surprised if the avg tv viewing audiences for these sides are extremely low, lower than all previous cellar dwellars in the AFL comp.

[piesman2011]

Thw blind faith some of these AFL supporters, and expert commentators on tv for that matter, seem to have in this "bunch of teenagers" becoming the goods in 3 years time is quite funny. I was reading an article on the st kilda team some months ago and i cant remember the exact percentage but its around 25% or less of all players who make the AFL go on to have careers spanning more than 5 years. 25%! So on that we've got 1/4 of the GWS side who will continue on in the game and even less than that will be above average players.

Excellent point however it is flawed. Have you checked the percentages of players in the top 30 draft picks? It would be a lot closer to 80%. Every year the AFL has 3 drafts and a trading period. 2 of these drafts are mostly for new players in which a total of about 160 players are picked up each year. GWS and GoldCoast have most of their players from the top 30 draft picks (they probabaly have a whole team of them). Most of whom will make it well beyond the 5 year mark.

GWS are in a really tough position and who put them there? The blindingly stupid headhonchos down at AFL HQ. A shameful act and in fact given the beltings these poor suckers cop week in week out, being a part of this team/experiment could be career ruining for some of them. They have barely any leaders to look up to and learn from...

I agree some what with what you are trying to say (even though it is just for trolling purposes). I believe that the AFL should have given 5-10 draft picks to GWS and GC with the only option being that they could swap them for experienced players with more then 5 years playing experience. Some of the young kids will cop a beating playing in positions that their bodies are not ready for. This may shorten their careers.

Now on another matter regarding the lopsidedness of the AFL comp. I'd like for someone to find us the tv averages for GWS, Melbourne, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and the GC. I think it'd be quite interesting, especially if we get the average viewers for those teams over the last 8 weeks, after the honeymoon phase of the season is over. I watched gws yest and it was terribly boring viewing...just not a contest from the first ballup. I wouldnt be surprised if the avg tv viewing audiences for these sides are extremely low, lower than all previous cellar dwellars in the AFL comp.

Feel free to research this and present your findings.