More games = bigger crowds, Busting this myth
Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 6:55 pm
So Raiderdave and KE seem convinced that because the AFL have gone to 9 games this must automatically translate to bigger crowd numbers and a similar crowd averages per game.
But every sensible person knows if the new teams are located outside the heartland they will naturally have lower crowds and therefore lower the average crowds of the entire comp, especially if the heartland average is so high like the AFL's is.
So lets compare some numbers for 2010, before the Suns were introduced, and 2012, after the Giants started. But before we begin, lets agree on 3 things:
1. Games in heartland states usually have larger crowds than games in expansion states
2. Naturally, games in expansion states usually have lower crowds than heartland games
3. Local derbies, or games involving teams in the same state usually involve larger crowds than games with one local team and one interstate team.
Sound fair?
In 2010
There were a total of 176 home and away games.
147 of these games were in the heartland states of VIC, SA and WA. This is 83.5% of all games
29 games were in expansion states of NT, QLD, NSW and TAS, or 16.5%
70 of these games were local derbies ie 2 teams from the same state, or 39.8%
In 2012
There were a total of 198 home and away games.
145 of these games were in the heartland states of VIC, SA and WA. This is 73.2% of all games
53 games were in expansion states of NT, QLD, NSW and TAS, or 26.8%
66 of these games were local derbies ie 2 teams from the same state, or33.3%
So, in summary, last year the AFL actually reduced the proportion of their games played in their heartland by 10%. They increased their games in expansion states by about 40%, and actually had 4 less local derbies despite 22 more games. Is it any wonder their average crowd figure suffered, and their total attendance figure actually dropped in 2012? Less heartland games, less local derbies.
Combine that with 2 new noncompetitive teams and live footy on TV for every game and the average was always going to drop. Last years figure is now the new baseline, just like a new course record when the tees are taken 40 metres back to account for longer drives.
Here comes Raiderdave with his witty "but but but" comeback. He uses this when he's completely stumped
But every sensible person knows if the new teams are located outside the heartland they will naturally have lower crowds and therefore lower the average crowds of the entire comp, especially if the heartland average is so high like the AFL's is.
So lets compare some numbers for 2010, before the Suns were introduced, and 2012, after the Giants started. But before we begin, lets agree on 3 things:
1. Games in heartland states usually have larger crowds than games in expansion states
2. Naturally, games in expansion states usually have lower crowds than heartland games
3. Local derbies, or games involving teams in the same state usually involve larger crowds than games with one local team and one interstate team.
Sound fair?
In 2010
There were a total of 176 home and away games.
147 of these games were in the heartland states of VIC, SA and WA. This is 83.5% of all games
29 games were in expansion states of NT, QLD, NSW and TAS, or 16.5%
70 of these games were local derbies ie 2 teams from the same state, or 39.8%
In 2012
There were a total of 198 home and away games.
145 of these games were in the heartland states of VIC, SA and WA. This is 73.2% of all games
53 games were in expansion states of NT, QLD, NSW and TAS, or 26.8%
66 of these games were local derbies ie 2 teams from the same state, or33.3%
So, in summary, last year the AFL actually reduced the proportion of their games played in their heartland by 10%. They increased their games in expansion states by about 40%, and actually had 4 less local derbies despite 22 more games. Is it any wonder their average crowd figure suffered, and their total attendance figure actually dropped in 2012? Less heartland games, less local derbies.
Combine that with 2 new noncompetitive teams and live footy on TV for every game and the average was always going to drop. Last years figure is now the new baseline, just like a new course record when the tees are taken 40 metres back to account for longer drives.
Here comes Raiderdave with his witty "but but but" comeback. He uses this when he's completely stumped
