Stockmarket

[leagueiscrap]

I had been waiting for a crash and thought well best to get in now. So put 6 figures in and what do you know ... crashes lol. But it’s a 10 year thing so will wait. But pissed I could have bought so much lower.

the crash has been hyped up by a lot of the so called gurus in the media..no one was expecting something as terrible as the coronavirus.
if there was something going to happen imo was expecting it to be around the time of the USA election due to America total influence of some 60% of the world stock traded


its been at record levels for some while now a pull back was always due, but with the rise of the tech companies now days the PE ratios and earnings are much higher as they are not needing to buy where houses filled with assembly lines, its officers filled with computer

[Fred]

Who else is down a pretty penny? I don’t need to sell so am fine but just spewing I invested a substantial amount in an etf two weeks prior to the arse dropping out of the stock market as could have got a lot more if had of waited. Question is do if invest more now ... got some bhp last week and up 2.50 on the share price ... or keep it in cash. Tempting to buy up big ... Wesfarmers, Coles, Woolworths are all bargains right now I reckon and a good way to diversify .... all blue chip. Also the banks are dirt cheap with NAB around 15 dollars (bought at 28) so a good chance to average out. Still... it’s about how much do you risk as it still a gamble.

[leagueiscrap]

Who else is down a pretty penny? I don’t need to sell so am fine but just spewing I invested a substantial amount in an etf two weeks prior to the arse dropping out of the stock market as could have got a lot more if had of waited. Question is do if invest more now ... got some bhp last week and up 2.50 on the share price ... or keep it in cash. Tempting to buy up big ... Wesfarmers, Coles, Woolworths are all bargains right now I reckon and a good way to diversify .... all blue chip. Also the banks are dirt cheap with NAB around 15 dollars (bought at 28) so a good chance to average out. Still... it’s about how much do you risk as it still a gamble.

im down a chunk my main etc is the ndq, but it had held up well considering how others have preformed, I recently put a bit in to an etf bboz an elf designed to short the market for a bit of fun https://www.betashares.com.au/fund/aust ... bear-fund/

I sold the Bboz after the novelty wore off, and that china is now back in full swing so am hoping the worst has hit but maybe wait a touch longer. even if the markets go a bit lower you'll have some really good buys if your plan is to gold long term..IMO westfarmers are a brilliant company Bunnings and fertliser, the banks are looking cheap, but with the market cap how much larger can they grow, especially after finding out they do have a heart after all and helping small business and home owners.

ive got some investment properties, set up all with different banks and already received phone calls from the banks, 2 of the major 4 and a 2nd tier regarding options and services if financial hardship was to take place

[Fred]

Well RAP has had a take over bid by Pfizer however all is not as wonderful as you would think - Pfizer trying to pick it up for a song and buy the company outright.

[Beaussie]

Glad I sold most of my shares for a profit when I did. Markets not looking great now.

[Fred]

It’s all long term

[pussycat Mark 11]

Stick with oil, coal and gas, it will be like gold as people start to realize just how valuable this stuff is.

[Fred]

Got my BHP at a song - who sold off their oil and gas so got me some free woodside as part of that deal.

[Fred]

So RAP officially sold to Pfizer for a song - board really sold out the shareholders and sure they are likely guaranteed a great job in all of it. Whilst I made a little money - nothing great, this product will become a staple of health care in years to come - another great Aussie invention goes overseas !! Potential here was another cochlear but crap management sees it engulfed by Pfizer.

[Fred]

Selling off my woodside soon (after dividend pay off) as I believe oil will plummet in a few years as EVs become more popular. I am informed that a simple 10 to 20 percent drop in consumption will see oil drop to around $20 a barrel. I expect that to be in 10 years - if not slightly earlier. No wonder BHO sold of their oil and petroleum.

[TLPG]

Pretty sure a crash is still on the horizon. Last I checked GDP in the US was woeful, and if there is a crash that's where it will start. They need GDP up and that means spending - but the Republicans won't allow it. I wish that would be played out at the mid terms in November so the Democrats can try and fix it consequent to taking full control on Congress and having the right people making the right decisions.

[Fred]

Check out planet money podcast on GDP - very interesting. The US and World are fighting high inflation.. one thing that leads to high inflation is the fear that prices will rise further - becomes self-fulfilling. The problem was putting too much money into the economy during Covid to people who did not really need it - and not as many places to spend it. Also, petrol became dirt cheap as demand was also way down - to the point they were literally giving oil away - there stacking occurred where they shut down oil drilling. Of course, when people started using their cars demand went up however supply was low amd hence oil became expensive. When petrol becomes expensive naturally everything else goes up to cover the cost. Obviously, the student loan reprieve will place some cash into the economy - which will work against reducing inflation however higher interest rates should put a squeeze in spending - and force people back to work with under employment a big issue with people simply pulling out of the work force - putting pressure on wages and again contributing to inflation. Keynesian Economics at it best I guess.

[TLPG]

Not true on the oil - the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the consequent sanctions caused that, cutting supplies. That's what pushed the prices up.

The real issue is striking the balance needed to allow inflation to fall. Our Reserve Bank is trying to find that balance, but it's not easy because of the threat of over cooking things. The pandemic caused a lot of economic issues and the response in order to try and keep the economy going was important. Mind you it didn't help that some were sucking the system (they didn't need the money as you said, Fred) just to get an extra buck. Those who couldn't spend because of lockdowns (especially in Victoria) are the ones who should really be working and aren't because they have money in their pockets and not spending it at a time when in fact they should be. Of course it doesn't help that a lot of the money is going to essentials anyway because of rising costs.

It's an all round balancing act. The US Republicans need to pull their heads in and do what's right for the world economy instead of looking after their own interests.

[Fred]

No - that’s not quite right on oil. The Russian war kept it up no doubt but prior to that oil drilling was, what it called, stacked, as demand was so low. They were literally giving oil away as cost more to store. Once demand picked up it took a while for them to start up the drilling - to this day there are about 300 oil drilling ops still not up and running at full cap but getting there. (cost of oil contributes about two-thirds to price at the pump). The other factor is refineries - these are old and not that efficient - many closed. So even when the oil started coming back online - they had trouble dealing with it. And companies will not build new ones as they have a long life yet there is pressure on the whole oil market so companies reluctant to invest in infrastructure. A 20 percent drop in oil demand will see the price of oil crash to about $20 a barrel- that won’t be long I’d say.

Inflation. - a very complex - but the main push on inflation is fear and becomes self inducing - add in natural disasters, supply chain issues, shut downs in China, blocked ports and things go up.

I’ll send you some info on the oil and why petrol went up.

[Fred]

Here you go - have a listen

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/p ... 0578218214