The NRL TV Deal - Predictions page

[enarelle]

The elegant/eloquent response to the NRL had a higher TV audience than AFL is "bullshit".

You got me I either made it up or I took it from the Repucom report. this is the mob who every year add up all the TV ratings across the whole country for the different sports. They seem to have some credibility given the AFL uses their data. Go Figure.


Now let me think why would the fact that 66% of all advertising dollars are spent in NSW/QLD mean anything to the new NRL TV deal. Well the majority of dollars are spent on TV advertising and sport is the main focus in this country. Then we have a sport who dominates the sport ratings in NSW/QLD and whose ratings continue to grow year on year. Go figure.

AFL may have the Foxtel Cup but then that is the new TV deal while the Toyota cup is not in the current NRL deal.

In the last two weeks Gallup has spoken of two new clubs by 2015 and spoke specifically of Perth







[/quote]

[enarelle]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 6025045416


This article points out that the NRL had a 9m advantage even allowing for the 2nd AFL grand final which was worth another 3m to the AFL numbers.

Without the 2nd grand final NRL would have a 12 million viewer advantage. I do believe that is a lot of people

[King-Eliagh]

Dear Members,

I've noticed there has been a ridiculous amount of hoo-haa in here about just how much the NRL will get for their upcoming tv deal. So this is the page to actually make a prediction so when the deal is finally made we can look at each others predictions and call them either legend or the biggest fukkstick to prance within the hallowed fight club halls.

So please post your prediction up for recording and for all to see :D

Kind regards,

King

Ah beaussie. Put your friggin prediction up or forever be acknowledged as the scaredy kitten who got eaten by the chicken.

[Beaussie]

$780 million for the NRL. Will bring them up to the level the AFL was 5 years ago. History shows us that is always the case with the AFL being the market leader when it comes to broadcast rights.

[Raiderdave]

$780 million for the NRL. Will bring them up to the level the AFL was 5 years ago. History shows us that is always the case with the AFL being the market leader when it comes to broadcast rights.

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[Beaussie]

Laugh all you like Raider. History and facts are on my side.

[enarelle]

The AFL crew really only understand TV rights in the post Super league period,perhaps they are too young. To those in the know the NRL TV rights were an artificial construct that followed the peace settlement ie they were artificially low.

In the first 5-6 years that followed the NRL really struggled for support and that no doubt reinforced the views of the AFL crew that they were superior.

Then a funny thing started about five years ago. League started a renaissance that shows no sign of ending. The TV ratings have nearly doubled in that period. This year alone Monday night football ratings went up 17% That is an incredible increase for a mature product.

It is classic AFL think to calculate NRL dollars based on AFL offerings. The reality is that TV stations/Telstra will evaluate NRL on the basis of what the NRL brings to the table. As the producer of the highest aggregate TV audience, which continues to grow, that is an awful lot. Channel 9/Fox cannot afford to lose League.

Channel 10 cannot go forward without some coverage of the major codes.

They are all need the sport that drives the TV audience in the states were the major companies spend most of their TV advertising dollars

The times they are changing.

[King-Eliagh]

Yes an interesting analysis thankyou enarelle. Seems like a much more sound and comprehensive analysis than Beaussie's one dimensional/linear 'the rights deal will follow the same pattern it had 5 years ago' argument. We know that 'historically' things change and can change rapidly Beaussie. But all the same thanks for providing your comment, it may prove amusing for years to come

:D

[Dogs]

I am taking 1.254, just enough to set a new record and stop beaussies only comeback when he is loosing in a thread.

[Beaussie]

The AFL crew really only understand TV rights in the post Super league period,perhaps they are too young. To those in the know the NRL TV rights were an artificial construct that followed the peace settlement ie they were artificially low.

In the first 5-6 years that followed the NRL really struggled for support and that no doubt reinforced the views of the AFL crew that they were superior.

Then a funny thing started about five years ago. League started a renaissance that shows no sign of ending. The TV ratings have nearly doubled in that period. This year alone Monday night football ratings went up 17% That is an incredible increase for a mature product.

It is classic AFL think to calculate NRL dollars based on AFL offerings. The reality is that TV stations/Telstra will evaluate NRL on the basis of what the NRL brings to the table. As the producer of the highest aggregate TV audience, which continues to grow, that is an awful lot. Channel 9/Fox cannot afford to lose League.

Channel 10 cannot go forward without some coverage of the major codes.

They are all need the sport that drives the TV audience in the states were the major companies spend most of their TV advertising dollars

The times they are changing.

What a load of drivel. You have no national competition. TV networks, media buyers and advertisers are interested in national appeal not provincial appeal. I've pointed this out before with Telstra mentioning this very point. Learn to deal with the fact you will always be small fry in the sports broadcasting landscape of Australia.

[enarelle]

You just knew the "national" competition claim was going to come from the AFL ranks -whatever that means. Apparently it means if you have a team in the 5 capital cities that makes a national competition.

If one looks at the TV ratings that AFL has got this year from NSW/QLD you will see that less than 7% of their audience to date has been generated from these two states that make up half the countries population.

So after 30 years of the Swans and 20 years+ of the Lions this is the national competition of the AFL?

The answer is of course not and that is why Demetriou and crew have created two new teams to try and impact these key markets.

See TV stations are only interested in/believe in 'national" competitions when lots of people watch.

Interestingly 7/Fox gave increased TV dollars on what AFL might do. For 7 it is increase FTA ratings in NSW/QLD and for Fox it was increase the number of subscribers in the AFL states.

When it comes to those key markets of NSW/QLD/ACT the AFL can provide 7 million viewers while the NRL can provide 120m. So I wonder who might be important.

The reality is that the AFL peaked north of the Murray about 5 years ago. The decline matches the rise of the NRL.

When it comes to demographic coverage the NRL actually has more people with their own team than the AFL - just they are not all in Oz. When they place a team in Perth they will have more people with their own team than the AFL.

Of course you have the other nonsense AFL argument that they have 4 states and NRL has only 2. It seems to escape them that 2 million more people line in those 2 states.

See the issue is that the AFL crew have always been convinced of their superiority and when things like aggregate TV ratings contradict this they find comfort in the TV dollars comparing a deal done 4 months ago with one done 4 years ago in a separate tiem and world from the NRLs perspective.

The times they are a changing.

[Beaussie]

You just wish you had a national competition that advertiser and broadcasters love. You lot tried that once and failed miserably remember???

[enarelle]

I guess I will have to take it that given you didn't refute a single point that the argument stands.

glad you brought up the Super League "war" which was fought over Rugby league TV rights because they believed to be so valuable that News and Packers spent millions trying to win them.

Irony was that they crippled the game for nearly a decade but now its back and the highly valuable league TV rights are about to start a new "war" which will be to the games financial benefit.

Of course they will use the new dollars to fund a new Perth team and another QLD or regional NSW team. Upwards and Onwards.

Given that NRL already had higher TV ratings even small audiences from these new markets will increase the gap.

[Beaussie]

Heard that rubbish before from pussycat. As I said when he brought that up, the only reason Murdoch and Parker got control of your game was because you were broke and whored yourself to the highest bidder. You're still broke but now you lot whine about being owned by a media company. And you now expect or should I say hope your owners will triple their current deal. Go figure. You lot are off ya heads.

[King-Eliagh]

Well finally found it. Folks I'm somewhat embarrassed with my first prediction of 950 Million. I'll be wrong I'm pretty sure but guess I have to stick with it as dems da rules, but if i could change I'd say 1.2 Billion now.

Anyhoo I notice there's some different members in here now so please provide your estimate of what the NRL might receive. I think Beaussie is going to be quite embarrassed with his prediction once the deal is set. Oopsy. I wanna hear your confession once the deal comes out beaussie, right here on this page