NRL to reap $1.2b from TV rights

[Xman]

I give it about 2 weeks max before 7 do their thing. From 7's perspective
7 Wins The Rights -

Pro: 9, 10 & Foxtel go into competition against each other to get the scraps, 7 keeps the top shelf for itself, makes money from the second network auction. They can also set up a better simulcast deal with Foxtel then what they have with the AFL - in other words they can do a Wally Lewis and dictate terms.

Pro: they split the halo & steal part of 9's F2A ad base, grow their youth base

Con: they may be left with all the rights if the other networks don't want to bid - BUT - that auction would be a totally blind auction so that scenario is highly unlikely. All 3 parties would be left guessing as to what the others would be doing. Ask yourself - what are the consequences for each if they fail to get even part of the NRL package.

Con: temporary share price adjustment but they're big enough to cover it in the short term

7 Don't Win The Rights -

Pro: but by driving up the price they force 9 & 10 out of other programming (not just sports, but overall network

Pro: may kill off F&LR for 2018 auction

No cons, status quo obviously

You've had a busy day Doc. Settle down a bit there champ! You'll "have an aneurysm"

[eelofwest]

I give it about 2 weeks max before 7 do their thing. From 7's perspective
7 Wins The Rights -

Pro: 9, 10 & Foxtel go into competition against each other to get the scraps, 7 keeps the top shelf for itself, makes money from the second network auction. They can also set up a better simulcast deal with Foxtel then what they have with the AFL - in other words they can do a Wally Lewis and dictate terms.

Pro: they split the halo & steal part of 9's F2A ad base, grow their youth base

Con: they may be left with all the rights if the other networks don't want to bid - BUT - that auction would be a totally blind auction so that scenario is highly unlikely. All 3 parties would be left guessing as to what the others would be doing. Ask yourself - what are the consequences for each if they fail to get even part of the NRL package.

Con: temporary share price adjustment but they're big enough to cover it in the short term

7 Don't Win The Rights -

Pro: but by driving up the price they force 9 & 10 out of other programming (not just sports, but overall network

Pro: may kill off F&LR for 2018 auction

No cons, status quo obviously

You've had a busy day Doc. Settle down a bit there champ! You "have an aneurysm"

No point is posting what Doc Says on LU, i am sure everyone on this forum reads LU already. :D

[TLPG]

I don't. And never will.

[Xman]

I give it about 2 weeks max before 7 do their thing. From 7's perspective
7 Wins The Rights -

Pro: 9, 10 & Foxtel go into competition against each other to get the scraps, 7 keeps the top shelf for itself, makes money from the second network auction. They can also set up a better simulcast deal with Foxtel then what they have with the AFL - in other words they can do a Wally Lewis and dictate terms.

Pro: they split the halo & steal part of 9's F2A ad base, grow their youth base

Con: they may be left with all the rights if the other networks don't want to bid - BUT - that auction would be a totally blind auction so that scenario is highly unlikely. All 3 parties would be left guessing as to what the others would be doing. Ask yourself - what are the consequences for each if they fail to get even part of the NRL package.

Con: temporary share price adjustment but they're big enough to cover it in the short term

7 Don't Win The Rights -

Pro: but by driving up the price they force 9 & 10 out of other programming (not just sports, but overall network

Pro: may kill off F&LR for 2018 auction

No cons, status quo obviously

Oh Doc! I was near suicide hey? It was but a mere humorous distraction.

You're the fool who had my picture as your avatar!

Haunted you were. Haunted. :<>

[justanotherleaguefan]

[Beaussie]

I'm going between 800 million and a billion and thinking it will be closer to the 800 million mark. Still a big increase in value for a competition that lets face it, is not national and is restricted to just 2 states of Australia in its appeal. The abysmal tv ratings for live NRL in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth tell you that much.

[Beaussie]

Please go in cheap Nine, would love to get rid of you once and for all. 10 put in a 20% overs so we can finally rid our self of these Merkins.
News Ltd getting desperate now, watch all the negative tv rights articles come up in the next phew weeks from News ltd papers.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/ ... 6349290817

Funny how you believe the positive "1.4b plus" articles but disregard the "less than a billion" articles as propaganda!

Hilarious isn't it.

[eelofwest]

Please go in cheap Nine, would love to get rid of you once and for all. 10 put in a 20% overs so we can finally rid our self of these Merkins.
News Ltd getting desperate now, watch all the negative tv rights articles come up in the next phew weeks from News ltd papers.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/ ... 6349290817

Funny how you believe the positive "1.4b plus" articles but disregard the "less than a billion" articles as propaganda!

Hilarious isn't it.

Were have i ever said we were going to get 1.4b, or better yet when have i posted a 1.4B propaganda Article on here?
Btw anyone with half a brain would know not to believe a Daily tele article, especially when its in there best interest to bring the rights down.
And as pies has said countless times, its all just speculation atm.

[pussycat]

I wouldn't rule Ch 10 out of the equation. Matter of fact they'd be my pick. I would'nt be surprised if Rupert bankrolled his son Lachlan at Ch10 in some kind of move to align the two networks. Rupert has no problems on the cash side of things, he is only held back by the anti syphoning laws. But Ch 10 has no problem with anti syphoning laws , just the cash . An alliance between the two could see them buy not only the football but all sort of programming, and then show it on both networks.

[TLPG]

The ACMA and the ACCC will see right through that! :D

[Xman]

I keep RL people say that the increase in FTA rights will come because the networks will increase the number of games shown. This would be an attractive outcome for RL fans of course. But won't this cause a massive drop in payTV subscriptions?

Why would RL fans keep foxtel when they can see 4 or more FTA games? Yes I know the AFL already have 4 FTA games but they didn't increase the number of fta games in the last deal, they increased the number of payTV games from 3 to 9, attracting more subscriptions.

If the NRl get more FTA games, even if they show more foxtel games, this still may tip the scales for many RL subscribers who will cancel their subscriptions.

Therefore if the NrL get more from FTA they may actually get less from foxtel.

[pussycat]

The ACMA and the ACCC will see right through that! :D

What bussiness of there would that be? They wouldnt be breaking any laws.

[pussycat]

I keep RL people say that the increase in FTA rights will come because the networks will increase the number of games shown. This would be an attractive outcome for RL fans of course. But won't this cause a massive drop in payTV subscriptions?

Why would RL fans keep foxtel when they can see 4 or more FTA games? Yes I know the AFL already have 4 FTA games but they didn't increase the number of fta games in the last deal, they increased the number of payTV games from 3 to 9, attracting more subscriptions.

If the NRl get more FTA games, even if they show more foxtel games, this still may tip the scales for many RL subscribers who will cancel their subscriptions.

Therefore if the NrL get more from FTA they may actually get less from foxtel.

It all works out the same for the NRL wether the money comes from Fox or FTA. Most likely though, they will have 4 each.

[Xman]

I keep RL people say that the increase in FTA rights will come because the networks will increase the number of games shown. This would be an attractive outcome for RL fans of course. But won't this cause a massive drop in payTV subscriptions?

Why would RL fans keep foxtel when they can see 4 or more FTA games? Yes I know the AFL already have 4 FTA games but they didn't increase the number of fta games in the last deal, they increased the number of payTV games from 3 to 9, attracting more subscriptions.

If the NRl get more FTA games, even if they show more foxtel games, this still may tip the scales for many RL subscribers who will cancel their subscriptions.

Therefore if the NrL get more from FTA they may actually get less from foxtel.

It all works out the same for the NRL wether the money comes from Fox or FTA. Most likely though, they will have 4 each.

Well it doesn't work out the same because the FTA payment may go up to a similar level the AFL have now but why will foxtel pay anywhere near the same amount for only four games, especially when this is a decrease from the last agreement and they already have high subscription rates in NSW and QLD. As I said, foxtel subscriptions will drop significantly if the NRl is on FTA on fn, Saturday and Sunday. What incentive do foxtel have to pay as much as they paid the AFL?

[pussycat]

PTV pay the lions share, with AFL, because they have all 9 matches, some exclsive. Ch 7on the other hand wouldnt be paying alot.

They pay proportionally to the number of matches they have.

As you just said, subscibers will drop off if the number of matches on PTV matches are reduced, also there would be less incentive to sign up.