The AFL is treading water - and might be underestimating the NRL sharks below.

[GlobalRugbyLeague]

The AFL is treading water - and might be underestimating the NRL shark below - SportsIndustryAU https://share.google/RArAt8j7a0Fl4864D

It’s been rumbling around on AFL forums and social media for a few years, the perception that the AFL has been treading water, and that its attempts to move out of its comfort zones have been the subject of mockery. That perception is heightened by the excitement and resurgence currently being experienced by its main sporting competitor – the NRL.

First, yes the AFL still leads financially, and in attendance and in membership. Its media rights deal is the leader for such arrangements in Australia, but there are signs that this leadership could be coming to an end as the NRL finishes catching up and begins to overtake the AFL. After all, history is littered with people and companies who started at the top and didn’t see the future coming.

Some have complained about AFL executive salaries for years, saying that the AFL was popular enough that almost anyone could run the AFL successfully due to its high crowds and latent popularity.

This article isn’t about which code is bigger, or which governing body is richer. It’s about a code resting on its laurels, while an up and coming code is moving in meaningful ways.

First financially, the AFL is in a great place – revenue is 30% higher than the NRL, and that gap ebbs and flows with media arrangements. However, the NRLs revenue continues to grow at an astonishing rate undreamed of by earlier administrations, and they are accumulating assets at a great rate of knots as they diversify away from the sport with what is now 5 hotels in the last 2 years. The AFL bought Marvel Stadium in 2016, and seems content with that and its 49% ownership of champion data. This is not necessarily a bad thing though.

Thanks to the deal they clubs struck with the ARLC, clubs now receive 130% of the salary cap, and almost every club in the league is now financially stable, if not outright profitable. The AFL has a problem here, there are several clubs that are receiving multimillion dollar assistance from the AFL annually – some of which is to cover inequities in the fixture to be sure – but the amounts rise every year, and there’s no sign of it diminishing.

And it’s not just the new clubs, the Giants and Suns, which we are assured, are generational developments and after all, the Swans took 30 years to become remotely successful, while the Giants have been around for a decade. Its hundred year clubs like Melbourne, North Melbourne and St Kilda who are still on the hook for large amounts of AFL assistance.

Both the AFL and NRL are experiencing record attendances – the NRL rose 20% last year, and are up 10% this year with full stadiums and new stadiums springing up across the country. The AFL is up 1% this year, and was up last year as well. Up is great, but momentum is with the NRL at the moment.

AFL and NRL memberships are at record levels, but given memberships are cheap – or free – this statistic is borderline meaningless and somewhat misleading.

We look at TV ratings, and Seven will tell you that its ratings are up this season, and by its measure they are – barely – while Nines NRL ratings are up in the double digits, and free to air coverage is passing the AFL regularly, whereas this was something of a rarity in years past. Its recently been reported that the AFLs Kayo ratings are up 16%, while the NRL is up 12.5% across the entire Foxgroup, but the NRL is streets ahead in the ratings.

The NRL will start a new rights deal in 2028, and its almost certainly going to be bigger than the AFLs for the first time since 1997. They’ve added so many products to their offerings and together with inflation, better ratings, and a three year late start – and it should be higher than the AFLs deal.

Most people don’t trouble themselves with financials, and so it’s left to the visible things the average supporter, the man in the street, will see for themselves.

We can look at the AFLs attempts to move beyond its traditional sphere of operations, and all open to criticism from within and without.

China – overstated crowd figures, fortunately paid for by sponsors, killed off by COVID. No one is talking about going back.
NZ – killed off by the Wellington Council after three seasons due to lack of interest.
AFLX – two seasons of the most mediocre development in Australian sport before it died a quick death.
AFLW – argued by some to have expanded too far, too fast to its detriment.
Expansion – Tasmania too expensive, Giants and Suns too costly. Limited other prospects.
Contrast this with the NRL going to Vegas, which love it, or hate it, has proven the springboard needed to start an absolute cracker of a season. It can’t be denied.

AFLW is a case in point. The leagues crowds and television ratings are probably acceptable for an Australian domestic sport. The NRL chose to go a slower route and introduce limited teams, played around the NRL finals series – which in turn gives them more eyeballs and a sense of great excitement. NRLW tv ratings are higher, but AFLW matches have better crowds when taken as standalone. There’s a bit to play yet.

This leads us to Origin. The AFL inevitably killed of a popular women’s representative match, as it did the men’s version years before. We’re told that Clubs don’t want it, players don’t want it, and fans don’t want it. In the mean time the NRLs Women’s Origin is currently one of the the most popular women’s sporting events on the calendar outside the Matildas in a World Cup Qualifier.

Both women’s and men’s Origin rates its socks off and now its 6 events a year instead of just 3, and that’s a handy thing to take to the rights table. Despite Origin being a VFL concept, the AFL chooses to not match this at all.

We can talk about internationals here, where the AFL commits itself on some occasions to a half baked idea called international rules that we play against the Irish that gives both the AFL and Gaelic football some ability to pretend to be an international sport. The AFLs International Cup is strictly amateur with neither the ability nor the appetite to take it any further. The AFL itself commits little towards international development.

The NRL on the other hand enjoyed great success with its Pacific Championships last year, both in TV ratings and in attendances, and its upcoming Ashes series in England is selling out rapidly, as the enthusiasm for league spreads back to its homeland.

And all of that is without mentioning the NRLs growing interest in Europe. Reports suggest the league is preparing to take a substantial interest in Superleague in the short term.

The one thing the AFL does well is Gather Round, but even that is a concept borrowed from league – but refined into something quite different and successful for the AFL. Opening Round on the other hand, has more detractors than supporters, although the northern clubs think of it in a positive fashion.

Lastly we can look at expansion – the Dolphins proving the most successful code expansion in decades until Auckland in the A-league, followed up with the announcements of teams in both PNG and Perth – the latter two are bold and exciting for league fans, and industry watchers. The NRL has enquiries from Fiji, and other Queensland sides, as well as a NZ bid that.

The AFL may be going to Tasmania – the league insists the team requires the stadium in Hobart to survive and that’s far from assured. The Giants and Suns are far from profitable entities in their own right, with AFL assistance now outstripping the clubs of even their TV rights value. Even the Lions are still on the AFL assistance train despite its Springwood pokie complex.

The AFL has limited other options for expansion – Tasmania is already only viable due to Government spending, the NT feasibility study found it to to be a non starter, and the ACT is likely to be similar. WA3 is a remote possibility but there are other football politics at play that make it a likely non starter for some time – and with the Bears arriving, maybe never.

The NRLs Dynamic Duo of Vlandys and Abdo have delivered in spades for the NRL, addressing long held concerns and doing more than just talking about doing things. These have been men of action who have energized the league, its clubs and their followers.. The AFLs Dillon has inherited an AFL that appears to have no new ideas in the tank and when it does cant seem to execute them properly, and when they do, it’s based on something delivered from the NRL first.

It’s not quite at the “man the lifeboats” stage, but the AFL is at risk of becoming reactionary, if it isnt already. – and then left behind

[Fred]

I agree with a lot here - I think vlandy's has done a great job. Gil was a disaster I think and not up top it and I don't think the new guy is any better to be honest. AFL resting on their Number 1 status may just see them lose that position. All credit to the NRL and the board and V'landy.