AFL vs NRL - the TV war

[pussycat]

This shows the revenue TV stations make for an advertisment in different areas.



http://www.thinktv.com.au/media/Media_R ... n_2010.pdf

[Beaussie]

And your point pussycat is? Will your link ensure the NRL matches or tops the AFL tv rights deal? Hasn't in the past and can't see it changing anytime soon. The gap between the codes in terms of tv dollars seems to widen every 5 years.

BTW, did you notice the TV ratings this week. Gold Coast vs Brisbane in the AFL smashed the NRL Brisbane vs Melbourne game on the same night and that's before we even add the free to air tv ratings in Brisbane. The AFL and Foxtel would no doubt be very pleased with that result.

Pay TV Ratings: Week 19
By David Knox on May 9, 2011

5 City Metro
1 Live: AFL Gold Coast V Brisbane Lions Fox Sports 1 274,000
2 Live: AFL Collingwood V W Bulldogs Fox Sports 1 225,000
3 Live: AFL Richmond V Fremantle Fox Sports 1 214,000
4 Live: NRL Broncos V Storm Fox Sports 2 184,000
5 Live: AFL Essendon V Gold Coast Fox Sports 1 179,000
6 Live: AFL Western Bulldogs V Sydney Fox Sports 1 148,000
7 Live: NRL Raiders V Wests Tigers Fox Sports 2 143,000
8 Live: AFL: On The Couch Fox Sports 1 116,000
9 Live: AFL: After The Bounce Fox Sports 1 91,000
10 Live: NRL Warriors V Panthers Fox Sports 2 88,000

http://www.tvtonight.com.au/2011/05/pay ... ek-19.html

[BrisMatt]

Before I start I must mention that I know nothing about AFL and the points I make might apply to AFL aswell, but from a strictly NRL perspective I see two issues with the ratings system

1st Point - NRL has too many Foxtel only games. If you take into account games that were only available on free to air you get - Round 1, the NRL averages 499,000 AFL 546,000, in Round 6 - NRL 578,000 (3 games) AFL 566,000 (4 games). NRL looks competitive here, but this will of course be strongly affected by my next point. By the way only 32% of Australians have Pay TV.

2nd Point - The Oztram rating only account for the capital cities - see http://www.oztam.com.au/television-ratings-guide.aspx
The NRL has 5 teams that are not even located within the ratings catchment
So what happens when the Knights Play? Population 550,000
Cowboys - Who knows how big the Nth QLD catchment is
New Zealand Warriors - Who knows??
Canberra Raiders ??
Illawarra Region??

Does the AFL have any teams which are not based within the ratings catchment area?

[BrisMatt]

I have just found this page which lists the estimated TV viewers in regional areas, ie not in metro areas and not in TV ratings areas. http://www.agbnielsen.net/Uploads/Austr ... imates.pdf

You will see that regional NSW, QLD and Canberra (considered NRL heartland) are much larger (over 2 million more) than the more AFL friendly regional areas of Victoria, Tas, and WA (SA is ommitted for some reason).

I really dont see how you can make a realistic comparison with such a huge portion of the NRL viewership unaccounted for. New Zealand (home of the Warriors) is obviously also ommitted.

[King-Eliagh]

Hmmm very interesting points BrisMatt. I agree.

I've been sceptical of beaussies decade long rants positioning the afl ahead of league on the ratings. I think he can be very deceptive and manipulative in his use of stats and don't think he realises is own bias. >

I'm interested to see his response to your well thought out and well presented arguments. Especially in relation to the actual population of the regional areas you state. Quite significant I would say. I'm sure it will take beaussie some time to manufacture an argument on this one > >

[BrisMatt]

And regarding Foxtell numbers per game

I can only compare games that are solely viewed on Foxtel

Round 1 - NRL (5 games) average 182,000 viewers, AFL (1 game) 133,000 viewers

Round 2 - NRL (5 games) average 176,000 viewers, AFL (1 game) 154,000 viewers

This leads me to the bottom of the ratings page where it notes

"Pay TV figures include regional viewers, which differ from the Free to Air TV 5 city metro. "

If the pay TV figures are inclusive of the entire population and these figures show that NRL beats the AFL viewership, then it is almost a foregone conclusion that if you included the regional areas within the Free to Air numbers then the NRL would come out ontop.

I think this is a pretty sound argument?

[BrisMatt]

UPDATE

Astra does ratings for Foxtel nationally, and NRL wins quite easily.

I would be fairly confident that NRL has a larger TV audience that AFL.

http://assets.astra.org.au.s3.amazonaws ... Week20.pdf

[BrisMatt]

Neilson do TV ratings in Regional Areas. http://www.agbnielsen.net/Uploads/Austr ... umCons.pdf

In regional NSW, VIC and QLD, Friday night footy (NRL) draws around 500,000 additional viewers. This is ontop of the figures listed at the start of this forum which were for metropoliton areas only.

AFL never makes it in to the top 20 shows in these areas so I cant give you the numbers.

Neilson also have figures from Tasmania, they watch AFL but their viewership is only around 70,000.

Figures are also available for Regional WA but you need to subscribe to get them.

I am now 100% confident NRL gets a bigger TV audience in both Free-to-air and Pay TV and I think it wins comfortably.

[TLPG]

Bet that doesn't include Austar figures - which are distinct from Foxtel.

[Beaussie]

BrisMatt, I think you need to take into account what Daniel Green has written about in his article on the TV Ratings page. Daniel covers the issues you have raised in particular, the following. As he says, food for thought indeed:

Over the entire season, the AFL was watched by a total of 65,023,000 and the NRL by 40,272,000. But what many fail to take into account is the three hour running time of an AFL telecast compared to the two hour running time of it's NRL rival. When this is taken into account, the AFL is viewed 2.4 times as often as the NRL on free-to-air according to Oztam figures. 195,069,000 cumulative hours were viewed for the AFL compared to 80,546,000 for the NRL. With advertisers able to slot in commercials every time a goal is kicked, the commercial value would also appear to be far greater than the NRL, which has far fewer opportunities to slot in ads of their own. It should also be noted, that the NRL's flexible schedule where they choose games several weeks out for its various timeslots, gives it what should be a ratings advantage. Friday night football in the NRL is selected as the highest rating match and is shown live, from 7:30 to 9:30, with Sydney and Brisbane usually getting different matches featuring local teams to maximise ratings. The AFL meanwhile, on Friday nights has a one hour delayed telecast in Melbourne, 90 minutes in Adelaide, and 3 hours delayed in Perth of one match set in stone from the previous October. Looking at these circumstances, and comparing the heartlands of the two codes, one would think that in Sydney, the NRL would rate higher than Melbourne for the AFL. Interestingly, the AFL averages 451,000 in Melbourne on Friday nights and the NRL averages 386,000 in Sydney, with the AFL figures going through to 11:30pm. The NRL figure only goes to 9:30, at which time a delayed (and lower rating) telecast of another NRL match begins.

It would appear that the AFL is more passionately supported in its heartland. Or maybe this is a reflection of the indifference of Sydenysiders since the Brisbane NRL ratings (which regularly feature the Broncos on Friday nights) are strong and impressive.

The above figures, of course, only take into account the capital cities, with Oztam ratings - being the currency by which television programs are bought and sold - only measuring the capitals. Most of the Rugby League persuassion would argue that the NRL has a far greater representation in the regional areas than the AFL. This is undoubtably true, with the decentralized states of NSW and Queensland encompassing large regional areas of Rugby League loving folk. But is this regional area, which, in Television terms makes up approximately 30% of the market, enough to claw back the 25 million viewer deficit (and a deficit in viewing time of 115 million hours?) Not by a long way.

One area the NRL has always held a traditional edge is the viewership on pay television network, Foxtel. With the NRL having five games to the AFL's four, and the AFL having a flexible arrangement whereby Foxtel games for local teams get shown on free-to-air in all cities bar Melbourne, the take up for pay-tv in New South Wales and Queensland is far greater than any other state. Consequently, NRL programs in 2009 have accounted for 60 of the top 100 programs on pay-tv, with their average rating per game being higher than the average AFL figure. However, when one takes into account the "reach" of the programs, a different story emerges. The reach measures the cumulative audience that watches a program (including when it was replayed at various times during the week) for any length of time. The reach of the average AFL home and away game on Foxtel was 562,000 to the NRL's 546,000.

The conclusion we can draw from all this, is that the AFL's television deal, which amounts to $780 million dollars over five years appears well justified in comparison to the NRL. Rugby League does, of course have its separate State of Origin series, which draws enourmous ratings and no doubt helps the code bridge the gap with Australian Rules Football who doesn't have an equivalent. Even taking the ratings for these games and adding them to the NRL's club fixtures, the figures still come up significantly below that of the AFL. Australian Rules Football, clearly commands its position at the top of the sporting landscape of Australia, with the NRL considerably, but not enormously behind. It is certainly food for thought when those from the land of uprights claim their favourite code of football deserves the same financial reward as the AFL. It's noticeably obvious that it doesn't.

http://www.talkingfooty.com/tv_ratings_2011.php

[Beaussie]

Bet that doesn't include Austar figures - which are distinct from Foxtel.

Austar figures as far as I'm aware are included in the ASTRA Pay TV figures. The ASTRA Pay TV figures are not included on this site this season because they count replays and 1 minute or more of viewing as opposed to an average like OzTam over the entire original broadcast. Regional ratings are I hope you will agree, unreliable as SA, WA, NT and other parts of Australia are not even counted. Besides that, tv rights are not negotiated and sold on the back of regional ratings. When was the last time you saw Prime, WIN/NBN or Southern Cross Ten bidding for the football tv rights?

[BrisMatt]

The argument is that they should be sold based on regional ratings, particularly based on the large number of regional viewers the NRL is getting. When a league has almost a third of its teams located outside the metro ratings area any deal must include their viewership or the league is simply being ripped off.

The AFL is a much smarter business than the NRL but I believe the NRL has a larger TV following and hence its deal should be similar in size.

[TLPG]

BrisMatt, I can tell you that ratings in the metro areas are far more important to the money men than the regionals - purely on population. That's why SA, WA and NT are generally not counted as Beau pointed out. Outside of the capital cities it's too sparse and there aren't enough people. Everyone's on the east coast on the mainland.

[King-Eliagh]

I think Matt states clearly that his inkling is the stats are misleading. I dont think he is unaware that the ratings in the metro areas are more important, as TLPG and Beaussie suggest.

I also think he highlights that regional australia has a significant population, which follows rugby league passionately. Furthermore regional Australia is growing rapidly in population and given BrisMatt's valid contribution above I think it wont be long before the TV companies will adjust their radar to take into account what the regional market is backing.

I have to say during my many travels I always count the rugby league posts compared to afl posts. In my current location, Townsville, it's about four to one to rugby, which contradicts beaussies many verbal statements over the years that north qld is Aussie rules heartland...

I'll be off to Darwin this Friday which is about 50/50 from the last time i visited.

Matt thanks for adding some much needed clarity and objectiveness to this debate =D>

[TLPG]

You haven't been to Cairns obviously. That's where the AFL heartland is in FNQ.