In a week of upsets and underdogs, the top 8 has been flipped upside down, where a few weeks ago, we predicted a top 4 spot for Collingwood, and the Roos to miss out on finals by a whisker. Three weeks later, the Roos are half a game clear in 5th position, the Maggies have dropped to winable games to North Melbourne and Essendon, and Brisbane are also looking vulnerable for the 8.
Geelong sits comfortably on top, as 1 of only 2 top 8 teams who won on the weekend, against a competitive Hawthorn outfit. They sit in 3rd spot after consecutive losses to St Kilda and the Cats. The out-of-form Bulldogs sit 2nd, half a game clear of the Hawks, and don't look at all a chance to catch Geelong. They went down to an inspiring Carlton team, who played a "never say die" type of game, coming back from a 37 point deficit midway through the third term. They now sit in 11th position, but only 1 game behind Collingwood, Adelaide, Brisbane, and the nineth placed Saints, but are way behind on percentage, and play 4 teams above them in the last 5 games.
Sydney still hold their place in the 4, only 1 game clear of the 5th placed Kangaroos, and have a tough run home, with the Doggies, Pies and Cats to play. The Roos on the other hand may snatch fourth spot from the Swans, but never looked certain winners against bottom place Melbourne on Sunday. They will look to improve on that performance this week against the Lions up at Carrara, and then against Western Bulldogs the week after.
Collingwood sit in 6th spot, and are still a chance of making the four if they can pull up their socks, and knock off the Hawks this Friday. Their form has been terrible the last few weeks, and could lose their spot in the 8 if they lose this week. The positives of the Pies is that they have a stack load of percentage, and have a good record against top 8 competitors Saints and Swans, who they play in their run home.
The injury plaqued Crows, who most predicted 3 weeks ago to be the team to miss the finals, had a great win against Sydney on the weekend, and have 3 winable games in the next 3 weeks- Carlton, then Richmond (both in Adelaide) and then the Bombers in Melbourne. They may be the roughie for the 4 if Sydney fall away.
Brisbane are holding themsekves in the 8 after losing to the determined Tigers on Saturday night. In their run home, they play 4 teams above them, and Carlton, but with 3 of them in Queensland, they should still be there in September. The next three weeks will make or break the Lions.
The Saints are just outside the 8, on the same points as Collingwood, Adelaide and Brisbane, but are way behind on percentage. Crunch games against the Pies and Crows will decide where they finish, and they won't want another repeat of Saturday's performance.
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